Visual Analysis writing assignment Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Visual Analysis writing assignment - Essay Example Inventory Image of a young girl from the back wearing white cotton skirt, and looking into a circular hole or what appears as a circular window in a dramatically patterned wall. A wide-brimmed hat obscures her head and echoes the shape of the entryway. She is bare feet and stands tentatively on her toes with the right foot overlapping the left one as though she wants to create stairs with her feet. She seems to be investigating something mysterious from inside the tunnel in which her right hand has disappeared into the unseen contents of the void. Intense sunlight is revealed with the distinct shadow cast by the girl’s body on the wall. The girl appears to be searching for an unknown thing, which leaves us investigating the contrast between the fearful unknown and her innocence. Composition One of the evident principle of design in this composition is emphasis whereby the artist pulls our eyes to the void through which the subject seems to be searching for something. ... The circular shape creates a sense of substance and space particularly positive space taken up by the subject. In addition, shape is also seen in the complex and dramatic pattern of the rectangles and squares of the wall. The surface texture of this image appears rough with black and white value that creates timelessness. Finally, there is repetition particularly of the circular shape, which results into a composition with unity and balance. Visual cues Black and white is the color of this photo, but with various tones. In addition, there is a sharp contrast created by the shadow revealing the photo was taken during intense sunlight. With respect to form, the circular shape of the heart leads the eyes of the audience to peep into the circular tunnel that seem to capture all the attention of this girls as she looks for an unknown inside the circular hole. When it comes to depth, only the foreground is focused, as the background is invisible due to the dramatically patterned old wall t hat blocks it. However, depth is visible in the circular portal, which appears to go deep inside beyond the wall. Finally, there is little movement with the only one created by the girl struggle to see what is inside or beyond the hole. This minimal, restricted movement creates a sense of fear. Semiotic signs and codes The element of semiotic signs and codes in this photo is the exaggerated big hat, which resonates with the Mexican people. The kind of hat in this photo is particularly used for those who work in plantations perhaps to shield them from intense sun, as well as for some cultural festivities. Along with the long white skirt, these two semiotic signs and codes play a significant role in determining the narrative of this image. Cognitive elements The cognitive

Technology Philosophy Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Technology Philosophy - Essay Example Varying the use of available instructional technology materials will keep the students expectant in every lesson. This gives inspiration to both teachers and students as well. For the teachers, there is the challenge to create new and exciting presentations and for the teachers, there is the continuous wondering not only on the concepts to be learned but on how these concepts are presented. The way these are presented is important because it paves the way for their clear understanding of the topics. The use of technology in the teaching-learning process should not be used as a tool in presenting the lessons like using the MS PowerPoint presentations to show the ideas and concepts or the use of transparencies to project the outline of the discussion or the content of the lecture. These should be part of the learning activities also where the students are enabled to understand these technologies and enabled to use these because in a way, creativity and technical skills are also developed. These can also be used as aid in learning concepts also like the use of computer games to teach the concept and activity of inference, hypothesis and prediction. My approach toward my educational philosophy with regard to technology was inductively developed. I looked at what I believe in with regard to the teaching-learning process and attached to these what I believe should be the role of technology. Later on, I looked into existing educational philosophies, and identified from there, which among these best fit my philosophy. As I have identified, these are as follows: John Dewey’s experiential philosophy, Dr. Howard Gardner’s multiple intelligences theory, and John Mc Peck’s teaching critical thinking. Dewey’s philosophy involves the use of experience in teaching like in teaching addition and subtraction of numbers for example, instead of teaching the

Study on the issues of organizational structure

Study on the issues of organizational structure Issue on organizational structure, in particular hospital structure has suffered a great deal of transformation over the past few decades. The structure not only represents the culture and target, but also exhibits and evaluates the correlation between individuals who work within a hospital, so as to facilitate the productivity and job efficiency (Madden, Courtney, Montgomery, Nash 2006, p.283). Laschinger, Finegan, and Sharmian (2001, p.60) indicate that a reasonable organizational structure has significant impact on promoting work efficiency in hospital, thus better healthcare services can be given to patients. Moreover, it is considerred that the design of organizational structure can be largely affected by different factors, such as organizations vision, mission, and strategy (Madden et al. 2006, p.272). Consequently, a well-structured health care organization will facilitate self-development, so as to enhance satisfaction on both patients and employee. 1.2 Thesis Statement A critical analysis of the organizational structure and the relationship to the mission and vision in regards to Concord Repatriation General Hospital in Sydney, Australia. 1.3 Scope This paper will be separated into three sections, which contain background information of the health care facility, then critically analyse the organizational structure in relations to its mission, and last but not least, a sound reasonable conclusion and recommendation will be elicited according to analysis. Background Information of the Health Care Facility This paper will focus on the critical analysis of Concord Repatriation General Hospital, which is also simply known as Concord Hospital in Sydney, Australia. Concord Hospital represents not only one of the most superior hospitals with the provision of a range of specialty inpatient and outpatient services in Sydney, but also an educational facility for offering training and placement opportunities for medical students. Moreover, the hospital has built up a comprehensive system, which received highly appreciation by Australian Council on Healthcare Standards for providing timely and excellent patients care, in particular, Burns Unit plays a major role across the states (Concord Repatriation General Hospital (CRGH), 2009). According to Concord Hospital (2008), the combined mission statement and vision state that practising clinical excellence, leading in teaching, contributing to health research, responding to the special needs of Veterans, and changing with the needs of the community. And this can be achieved throughout taking care of individual patient needs; providing quality services; promoting healthy lifestyles; as well as valuing health care teams (CRGH, 2008). Thus, from its organizational point of view, the primary or principal goal of Concord Hospital is more consumers concentrated, in order to provide better health care services. For example, a five-year programme finished by the hospital in 2006 in regarding to capital works provides assistance in the expansion of care and services for patients in several areas, such as Aged Care and Rehabilitation, co-locating some specialties outpatient and inpatient services, so as to bring benefits to both patients and non-patients (CRGH, 2008). Figure 1 illustrates the detailed organizational structure of Concord Hospital. It can be seen that there are five branches under General Manager, which comprise Director of Medicine, Director of Nursing, Director of Corporate and Clinical Support Services, Director Performance and Informatics, as well as Demand Management Unit. The Academic and Research lies alongside with the link of broken line (CRGH, 2008). Figure 1: The detail organizational structure of Concord Hospital (CRGH, 2008) CRITICAL ANALYSIS 3. 1 Critical analyse the hospital organizational structure in relation to its mission According to Figure 1, the organizational structure of Concord Hospital can be treated as line or functional structure, as it classifies alike disciplines together (Robbins, Bergman, Stagg, Coulter 2006, p.336). It is shown that both its mission accomplishment, and hospital collaborates its structure with mission are more likely to reflect positive employee action (Bart, DeGroote, Bontis, Taggar 2001, p.19). In addition, this organizational structure not only enormously shows the culture and target of the hospital, such as build up Anzac Research Institution, but also offer a clear line of authority, which points out the hierarchy lies within different departments, so as to maximum benefits healthcare services to patients and employee (Madden et al. 2006, p.283). 3.2 The advantages and limitations of the structure for health care delivery Concord Hospital is more based upon a concept of functional structure. Chain of command, as a concept of organizational design states the authority is developed and ranked from upper level of the hospital to its lower position (Robbins et al. 2006, p.327). According to figure 1, the chart deploys the hierarchy from the advanced to lower level position, for example, Director of Nursing to Assistance in Nursing. Critically speaking, this type of organizational structure shows the ability of economizing expenditure, it can be considerred that this organizational structure not only minimizes the recurrence of employee and capital, but also increases the efficiency in use of resources, so as to deliver better quality of care to patients in a particular treatment unit. By contraries, it cannot be denied that professionals or staff can be isolated under this structure with very limited information in regarding to other departments work. Again, the deficiency in exchange of thoughts between employees may induce the downside of quality in healthcare services that provided to patients (University of Western Sydney (UWS)2010, p. 19). 3.3 The key lines of authority and responsibility for achieving organizational goals The key lines of authority and duty in Concord Hospital to be broken down into several subordinates. According to figure 1 (CRGH, 2008), each level of authorities from upper to lower level has been detailed illustrated under different specialties. It is believed that the authority is generally derived from managerial level, and then tasks are given to employee to complete (Robbins et al. 2006, p.327). In other words, for those who are in higher level have predominant rights than lower level employee. This organizational structure also purely explains the hierarchy of work, and the responsibility of each level(Madden et al. 2006, p.283). For instance, nursing manager has absolute authority and occupies full responsibility in managing nursing related stuff. It can be thought that authorized person needs to utilize resources efficiently and effectively, thus assists in achieve organizational goals via granted lines of authority and responsibility (Chandler 2003, p.48). 3.4 The utility of the structure in relation to the achievement of the organizations mission and goals The utility of the structure of an organization should encourage in the achievement of organizational mission and vision. It breaks down organizations employee into specific sections, in order to produce harmonious adjustment between each other (Mintzberg, Quinn, Ghoshal 1995, p. 352). It is obviously that Concord Hospital establishes a full range of departments for providing better quality of care to patients. For example, the Centre for Education and Research on Ageing (CERA) links the hospital itself with its teaching university focus on the provision of effective care, and better their living standards among ageing patient group (The University of Sydney, 2010). This accordingly shows the comprehensive quality of care to be given to a specific group of patients in order to enable the hospital missions which are providing quality services to patients, leading in teaching, contributing to health research to be accomplished (CRGH, 2008). 3.5 Aspects of the structure which facilitate or impede performance and potential solutions Organizational structure can be seen as an effective tool for promoting interaction between various departments within an organization. Also the distribution of responsibility between specialties in the hospital aims to speed the combination of healthcare services among patient (Stoelwinder, Blandford, Perkins 2006, p.319-320). The traditional structure is used by Concord Hospital which classifies same groups of professions into one specialty, it can be seen that this type of structure mainly concentrate on professional training and development, then better quality of care can be given to patient. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the structure affects the provision of efficient healthcare services, as health professions are grouped into different facilities, which leads to the lack of coordination and communication between departments, thus compromise on healthcare to be given to patient. Whereas, some mixed structures can be considered under this circumstance, such as a tradition al functional structure mixes with product structure, so as to not only benefits healthcare professions, but also brings much more attention to patient care (Stoelwinder et al. 2006, p. 322). 4. CONCLUSION This paper concentrates on the critical analysis of organizational structure and relationship to mission and vision for Concord Hospital. The hospital is one of the most superior hospitals with the provision of a range of specialty inpatient and outpatient services in Sydney. Concord Hospital has a combined mission statement and vision, and this can be achieved throughout taking care of individual patient needs; providing quality services; promoting healthy lifestyles; as well as valuing health care teams. The organizational structure of Concord Hospital by using line structure shows that its mission accomplishment, and hospital collaborates its structure with mission are more likely to reflect positive employee action. Moreover, it can be considered that this organizational structure minimizes the recurrence of employee and capital, as well as increases the efficiency in use of resources, so as to deliver better quality of care to patients in a particular treatment unit. By contraries, it cannot be denied that professionals or staff can be isolated under this structure with very limited information in regarding to other departments work, the lack of communication results in the downside of quality in healthcare services that provided to patients. The key lines of authority and the duty in Concord Hospital to be broken down into several subordinates. It is believed that for those who are in higher level have predominant rights than lower level employee. Furthermore, the utility of the structure of an organization assists in the achievement of organizational mission and vision. Overall, the structure of Concord Hospital is considerably well designed. It is obviously that the hospital establishes a series of full range departments and specialties for providing better quality of care to patients. The organizational structure in terms of type, authority lines, and structure utility has largely impacts on its organizational mission and vision.

Global Warming Is Eroding Glacial Ice :: Analysis, Andrew C. Revkin

People are responsible for higher carbon dioxide atmosphere emissions, while the Earth is now into the Little Ice Age, or just behind it. These factors together cause many years discussions of the main sources of climate changes and the temperature increasing as a result of human been or natural changes and its consequences; even if its lead to the global warming, or to the Earth’s cooling. In their articles, â€Å"Global Warming Is Eroding Glacial Ice† by Andrew C. Revkin and â€Å"Global Warming Is Not a Threat to Polar Ice† by Philip Stott, both authors discuss these two theories (Revkin 340; Stott 344). Revkin is right that global warming is taking place. Significant increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is due to human activities combined with natural factors such as volcanic emissions and solar radiation – all together they lead to climate changes and temperatures rising. At the same time, other factors such as deforestation contribute to envi ronmental changes for some glaciers not less than air pollution. However, during global warming not all regions of the planet are affected in the same way, local warming and cooling are both possible during these changes. First, during the last few decades the Earth is experiencing greater rate of rising temperatures due to greenhouse gases that are being produced by human activities rather than because of environmental reasons, such as solar or volcanic activities. In 2006 the President of the National Academy of Sciences stated: â€Å"There is no doubt that the Earth is warming,† also he added that people are at least partly responsible for these changes in addition to regular factors (Cicerone, par.4). Natural factors have produced climate fluctuations on Earth for several million years. People have effected an atmosphere of the Earth just for nearly one hundred years, since Industrial Revolution has begun (Revkin 340). Of course, it is unfair to say that global warming is caused entirely by humans. For example, people can not have an impact on the position of Earth in relation to the sun, or on the galactic density, or such nature events as air emissions of volcanic gases. As a result of th ese environmental factors, Earth usually had higher rates of temperature fluctuations during the previous million years than it has in later centuries. On the other hand, people are responsible for the highest concentration of greenhouse gases during the last 650,000 years in the atmosphere due to industrial manufacturing, driven by the increase in consumer consumption (Lindsey, par.

Oprah Winfrey’s 2008 Stanford Speech

This speech was about three lessons that Oprah Winfrey has come across in her professional and personal life. She talked about striving to be yourself and not anyone else and how you can grasp failure and turn it around by embracing it and finding the solution, and lastly how happiness comes when you give back to others. Her first lesson was about striving to be your own self; she talked about in the beginning of her professional career when she had a job in Baltimore as a news anchor. She was constantly holding Barbara Walters as the image she wanted to be in her career and wanted to be like.So she was always trying to talk like Barbara, look like Barbara and act like Barbara†¦ And she kept getting it wrong. She felt the need to be spontaneous and more of herself when she would read some of the headings†¦. Especially upsetting headings with disasters involved. So she would sometimes not pre-read any of headings until she was live so it would come across more realistic. She once covered a story of a horrible fire and afterwards ran to the scene and helped the fire victims by providing blankets. She never lost her empathy.She ran into some barriers during this job that ultimately helped her find her true purpose in life. The first barrier was that her boss let her know that they did not like the way she looked, and that they wanted to give her a new name that they thought would be more â€Å"friendly† and would be remembered by the public. She refused to change her name but did try to improve her looks by getting a perm that eventually made her hair fall out. She was let go from her position as the news anchor and placed on a talk show instead. It was there on the talk show that she felt she was at home and knew she had found her purpose in her life.So here she learned that she should never try to be anyone other than herself†¦ and that when you are doing something you are supposed to do you will feel right about it. She referred to it as f eeling â€Å"at home†. Her second lesson was about embracing your failures and leaning with them instead of resisting them to find the solution. She talked about some of her failures and how she gained from them instead of being devastated. She mentioned her job loss in Baltimore†¦ at first she was upset but it turned out to be one of the best things to have ever happened to her because out of t she would up on a television show and found her place in her future HUGE professional life. She talked about how your gut can tell you a lot. When you are doing something you’re supposed to be doing your gut will let you know it. When you’re doing something you probably shouldn’t be doing, your gut will also tell you. Something just won’t feel right. That there is an inner voice inside you that you must follow and that it guides you through life. She calls is â€Å"life’s whisper†. Oprah stressed that when devastation hits you, take a ste p back and ask â€Å"what is this trying to teach me? She told the story of building a school in Africa for girls and took so much effort into making sure the building was perfect for the girls. Then she found out that one of the dorm matrons was suspected of sexually abusing the girls. She expressed how devastating this was to her and that she had to take a step back and ask herself what was the lesson here? She realized she was paying attention to all the wrong things. That she built that school from outside in, when what really mattered was the inside. She also expressed that she feels you never stop learning.She was referring to the graduates of Stanford that their education journey does not end her and that looks to the earth as a huge school never ending learning experience, and that she is still learning to this day. She went over a few quotes by her father and by BB King. Her last lesson was about giving back to others. And in order to be happy you MUST give back to others. And with that comes happiness. It gives you gratitude and makes you feel good. She also said to be a part of something bigger than yourself because life is a reciprocal exchange.She expressed that giving back is the greatest lesson of all to her. She talked about how in her career how she has given back in numerous amounts of ways and gave advice for whenever you’re in a mess, you help someone else get out of a mess†¦ whenever you are in pain, help someone else in pain, whenever you have a loss help someone else with a loss†¦. She talked about how the founders of Stanford University lost their son and how they took their pain and sorrow and channeled it into grace and started the University and helped other people with children like their son.She told the students that whatever their career may be that they use their ability to help others and pass along greatness. She ended with a Martin Luther King, Jr. quote. Speech Analysis Oprah gained the audience’s at tention right away because she is a widely known influential media leader. She is the Oprah Winfrey. She started by telling the audience she had a secret and that one of the students Kirby (Gail King’s daughter) was her god daughter and gave a quick story of how she knows Kirby and how proud she was of her god daughter for graduating.This was also part of an attention getter. Oprah used good eye contact and her voice manner was very pronounced and sure of herself. She is obviously a very experienced speaker, being Oprah. She used humor throughout her speech such as saying â€Å"Stanford† with a serious tone in her voice. She kept her speech very relatable to the graduates of Stanford by talking about her professional career and all her goals she met and would occasionally talk to them specifically and give them advice about when they go out in their career how they can help, or not to give up because of failures, etc.Oprah had good body gestures and moved her arms arou nd when talking, gave great pauses for emphasis and looked around at the audience. She did not seem to read her speech word for word, but rather just glance down at her notes and just speak freely of her own experiences. She talked a lot about her college career in the beginning of her speech which also gained attention from the graduates. O Oprah’s vocal tone was as always, inviting and I think that really kept the audience engages and very attentive towards her and what she was saying even though her speech was pretty long (30 min).Oprah was never repetitive and her examples were very witty and relatable. She gave each audience member two books from inspirational writers that she claimed helped her with her own life. She joked with the audience saying she wished she could have gotten everyone cars, but couldn’t pull it off. Oprah’s speech was very inspirational, impacting and I believe left a huge impression and impact on those 2008 graduates’ lives. I loved the speech and am happy I watched it and picked this one to analyze.

Forecasting techniques in tourism demand Essay

This summary is focused on showing the forecasting techniques used to determine the likely demand in tourism and argues that given the importance of the tourism sector to the economy of any tourist country, accurate forecasts of tourist arrivals are of importance for planning by both the private and public sectors. First we should answer the question what tourism is itself. It is obvious that tourism industry is not one company. It combines thousands of products and services. A company sets goals and uses its production, marketing and managerial resources to achieve them through its management process. And in tourism there are too many companies involved and too many goals are set, but almost everything in this industry depends upon the visitor numbers in other words demand. This is the main target of forecasting. It has been pointed out that forecasting is useful in shaping demand and anticipating it to avoid unsold inventories and unfulfilled demand. Moreover since consumer satisfaction depends on complementary services, forecasting can help to anticipate the demand for such services. As well it helps optimizing the use of public funds, in other words save money. It should be mentioned that a fall in demand can bring about decreases in living standards following the rise in unemployment, while increased demand can lead to higher employment, income, output and inflation as well may threaten environmental quality and sustainability. Moreover, tourism firms are confronted by changing revenue and profits and governments experience changing tax revenue and expenditure. Thus, tourism demand effect can be observed in all sectors of economy – households and individuals, public sector and private businesses. For example, decisions on tourist expenditures, the tourism markets structure and decision-making nature between them, cross-country linkages between tourism firms, the contribution of environmental resources and their relevance to policies for sustainable tourism have not been fully investigated and need further economic analysis. Aim. The paper is aiming on showing the existing forecasting techniques, their positive and negative features for better understanding the importance of demand forecasting in tourism, and the necessity of using these or those methods for obtaining the most accurate and precise results. It is obvious that one of the more complex aspects of tourism is the tourism demand. As a rule it is defined and measured in a variety of ways and at a range of scales. Generally, there are economic, psychological and social psychological methods used in forecasting. For example, decision to purchase holidays are often made with friends and family so that consumer demand theory based on individual decision-making must take account of individuals` and groups` social contexts. As well as the analysis of travel patterns and modes has been dominated by geographical analytical frameworks, while the study of demand outside economics tends to be underpinned by psychological or social psychological methods. ‘The many studies of tourism demand in different countries and time periods are reviewed by Archer, Johnson and Ashworth, Sheldon and Sinclair while Witt and Martin examined alternative approaches to tourism demand forecasting. ’ (Sinclair, 1997). The significance of tourism demand provides a strong case for better understanding of the decision-making process nature among tourists. In case of using an inappropriate theoretical framework in empirical studies of demand can result in incorrect specification to estimate tourism demand and biased measures of the responsiveness of demand to changes in its determinants. It should be mentioned that ‘empirical studies help to explain and understand the level and pattern of tourism demand and its sensitivity to changes in the variables it is dependant on. For example, it helps in observing income in origin areas, exchange rates between different destinations and origins as well as relative rates of inflation. This type of information is of importance to public sector policy-making and the private sector. ’ (Sinclair, 1997). But only in case of appropriate theoretical specification of the studying model used the estimates can be accurate and precise. Hence, explicit consideration of the consumer decision-making supporting empirical models is of importance in presenting the provided estimates are neither misleading nor inaccurate in their policy implications. Thus there are two approaches used to model tourism demand. First one is the single equation model and the second is the system of equation model. ‘The first one single equation model has been used in studies of tourism demand for numerous countries and time periods and states that demand is a function of a number of determining variables. ’ (Sinclair, 1997). This technique permits the calculation of the demand sensitivity to changes in these variables. Contrary to the first approach, the system of equations model requires the simultaneous estimation of a tourism demand equations range for the countries or types of tourism expenditure considered. The system of equations methodology tries to explain the sensitivity of the budget shares of tourism demand across a range of origins and destinations (or tourism types) to changes in the underlying determinants. There exists one more forecasting technique which is more recent and can be compared with the single equation approach. It is the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). (Maria De Mello,1999). This model is theoretically better than the mentioned above and offers a range of useful information concerning the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in relative prices and in tourists` expenditure budget. This approach was used in examining the UK demand for tourism in its geographical neighbor-countries as France, Spain and Portugal. The result of such investigation indicated that ‘the UK demand for tourism in Spain increased more than proportionately with respect to a rise in the UK expenditure budget for tourism in three countries, the demand for tourism in France increased less than proportionately and the demand for tourism in Portugal remained stable. The sensitivity of the UK demand for tourism in Spain to changes in effective prices in Spain is increasing and exceeds the corresponding values of the sensitivities of the demand for tourism in France and Portugal to changes in French and Portuguese prices, respectively. (Maria De Mello,1999). ‘In contrast, the UK demand for tourism in Spain is insensitive with respect to changes in prices in its smaller Portuguese neighbour. The UK demand for Portugal is sensitive to changes in prices in Spain, although the degree of sensitivity appears to be decreasing over time, and the demand for France (Portugal) is insensitive with respect to a change in prices in Portugal (France)’(Maria De Mello,1999). So it is obvious that stability of demand in the face of rising prices may be observed as signals of success, and contrary outcomes mean a possible case for rethinking policy toward tourism demand. Scientists have used a variety of other forecasting techniques during the past decades for tourist industry. Among them are quantitative forecasting methods. They may be classified into two categories: causal methods (regression and structural models) and time series methods (basic, intermediate, and advanced explorative methods). For further explanation we should mention that causal methods represent methodologies for identifying relationships between independent and dependent variables and attempt to incorporate the interdependences of various variables in the real world. However, there is certain difficulty of applying the causal methods. It is identifying the independent variables that affect the forecast variables. So the accurateness and reliability of final forecast outputs made under causal methods depend on the quality of other variables. The second group of methods, time series quantitative methods, offers many advantages. It is pointed out that ‘the use at time t of available observations from a time series to forecast its value at some future time t+1 can provide a basis for (1) economic and business planning, (2) production planning, (3) inventory and production control, and (4) control and optimization of industrial processes’(Chen, 2003). Time series methods offer techniques and concepts facilitating specification, estimation and evaluation. They acquire more precise forecasting results than those yielded by causal quantitative techniques. It should be mentioned as an example that forecasting is complicated by the strong seasonality of most tourism series. It is pointed out that to see seasonality as a form of data contamination is one of typical approaches to the analysis of macroeconomic time series. This was the approach often used in many census and statistical departments. In the case of tourism analysis seasonality is integral to the process and is of high importance for the timing of the issuance of policy measures in addition to studying the long run trend. ‘As significant features of quantitative tourism forecasting (involving the numerical analysis of historical data) we see that while it is particularly useful for existing tourism elements, it is limited in its application to new ones where no previous data exists’. (Smith, 1996). This technique was used in forecasting potential UK demand for space tourism. Appendix 1, 2). (Barrett, 1999). As well univariate forecasting techniques may be used to forecast arrivals. This limited methodology relative to structural models allowing policy makers to determine how changes in particular variables can help to improve the industry. The weak point of the technique is that the models have no explanatory variables so it is difficult to interpret the individual components. Therefore, the forecasting record of many univariate models have considerable forecasting accuracy. Lim and McAleer employed univariate techniques to forecast quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia and to determine their forecasting accuracy using a variety of seasonal filters. Kulendran and King also employed a variety of models to rank forecasting performance of various tourist arrival series using seasonal unit root testing’ (Alleyne, 2002). Conclusions and Recommendations. It should be mentioned that forecasting techniques and forecasting itself have some weak points. Firstly, current forecasting is mostly the domain of policy makers. It is beneficial for three groups: public sector tourism organizations as it helps justify budget allocations; managers of public and private sector tourism projects as they may encourage investors, and the forecasters themselves. There are no actual benefits from forecasting for tourism operators and suppliers because the results are not actionable and unrelated to the real needs of the majority of tourism businesses. The problem with the results may be illustrated by such an example. (March, 1993). ‘The BTR’s â€Å"Australian Tourism Forecasts† report released in April 1990 forecasts 4. 85 million visitors by the year 2000. The BTR’s latest forecast for 2000 is 4. 824 million visitors. And only last month The Australian newspaper (Oct 12 1993:p. 6) reported the results of â€Å"a respected private sector forecaster† who has forecast 5. 33 million by the end of the decade’(March, 1993). So you see numbers keep changing and this is the evidence that sometimes the forecasting results become not actionable. Summarizing all the mentioned above we may say that there is a wide range of techniques used for forecasting demand in tourism. In this paper we mentioned only some of them which to our mind deserve attention and may be used in forecasting the demand. As you may see investigation of tourism demand involves specific problems because it has some special nature attributed to the complexity of the motivational structure concerning decision-making process as well as the limited availability of the necessary data for econometric modeling. Quantitative approach for tourism demand needs the framework of a formal mathematical model providing estimates of sensitivity to changes in the variables the demand depends on. Econometric modelling offers a good basis for accurate forecasting which is of great importance to the public sector making investments in the industry. The single equation model often ignores the dynamic nature of tourism demand, disregarding the possibility that the sensitivity of tourism demand to its determinants may differ between periods of time. The alternative model is the Almost Ideal Demand System. It is originally developed by Deaton and Muellbauer. This model not only permits the estimation of the complete set of relevant elasticities, but also allows for formal tests of the validity of the assumptions about consumer behaviour within the sample set of observations. The AIDS allows to test assumptions and estimate parameters in a way which is not possible with other alternative models. So for now, we may say that there are no completely bad or good techniques used for forecasting tourism demand. But there are preferable models for getting more accurate results. It is better using models based on old theoretical knowledge but with new trends able to cover all the necessary aspects in forecasting tourism demand.